International Journal of Scientific & Technology Research

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IJSTR >> Volume 11 - Issue 01, January 2022 Edition

International Journal of Scientific & Technology Research  
International Journal of Scientific & Technology Research

Website: http://www.ijstr.org

ISSN 2277-8616

Forecasting Market’s Demand And Supply With Machine Learning And Local Weather

[Full Text]



Jephter Kapika Pelekamoyo, Hastings M. Libati



Artificial Intelligence; demand forecasting; forecasting; machine learning; market research; supply and demand



The study explores the use of Artificial Intelligent Machine Learning (AI/ML) models in forecasting Small and Medium Scale Enterprises (SMEs’) local goods’ quantity purchase, buying and goods selling prices, from the day-to-day local weather conditions of low and high temperatures. The use of weather parameters in forecasting for SME market parameters proved to be an accurate procedure for SME market parameters’ forecasting than other methods which use time-series methods. The weather was chosen as the independent variable, as it impacts local production and influences human behaviour in ways that most traditional methods cannot compute. With the inclusion of weather, AI/ML forecast models considered the seasonal variations of demand and supply traits due to seasonal shifts in the popularity of certain goods and services. This can give SMEs a better market business insistence. SMEs herein included the marketers who trade in household edible commodities. The study’s findings will give SMEs an added advantage, with insists on increasing their savings, reducing losses, minimizing resource wastage, with a prior overview of coming business risks and opportunities. The AI/ML forecasting models explored, included the Multivariate Linear Regression model, and Logistic Regression model built using visual C# DotNet, and an ‘Encoder-Decoder Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Neural Network modelled with python language. The study contributes to the body of knowledge by elaborating how ML applications will give SMEs a chance to take pre-emptive measures, by prior planning and controlling cash flows, balancing spending with revenues and adjusting sales targets. It also proposes how ML applications should use personalized localized data in forecasting business parameters



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